Report from the XTB broadcast: Energy Crisis 2022

Press Release: On Tuesday, September 22, 9, from 2022:18 p.m., the XTB company held an online conference on the currently very popular topic "Energy Crisis 00". The invited speakers were: Lukáš Kovanda (chief economist of Trinity Bank), Tomáš Prouza (president of the Trade and Tourism Association of the Czech Republic) and Jaroslav Šura (economist and investor). Jiří Tyleček, chief analyst of XTB Czech Republic, accompanied the conference.

Even a year ago, the price and availability of energy was not generally discussed much. Since then, however, the price of electricity and gas has risen tenfold. For an ordinary household, this means an increase in costs by thousands to tens of thousands of crowns per month. This is of course a big problem. Therefore, the possibility of a price ceiling is being addressed, which does not necessarily mean that there will be enough energy, especially gas. So what should we expect this winter?

According to Luke Kovanda depends primarily on Russia's willingness to continue selling its gas to Europe. A big role will also be played by what temperatures will prevail during the winter. Savings should then occur naturally, already in the energy prices themselves. The supply for the next heating season is a completely different issue. Will Europe be able to replace supplies through LNG from the USA and Norway or sources from Africa and the Middle East? If so, then the worst should be over.

Tomáš Prouza then added that it is currently necessary to prioritize energy security over other interests, e.g. the EIA issue, as is being done by, for example, the Dutch government when building a new LNG terminal. At the same time he stated that supplying gas to Europe is also in the interest of Russia itself, which has no other alternatives in the short to medium term. On the issue of possible opportunities and risks for Czech industry, he mentioned the issue of European funds and money intended for energy transformation.

Jaroslav Šura, in agreement with the speakers, considered the most important issue of supplies for the next winter, which at the moment has not been resolved. The speakers were more skeptical about the possibility of quickly replacing Russian gas with LNG. Rather, it will be a long-distance run, which must be combined with savings as well as the use of other energy sources.

Topics such as: the advantages and disadvantages of sanctions on Russia, the reaction of the Czech government to the current situation and the issue of special taxes on banks and energy companies were also discussed.

The second part of the conference was in the spirit of investors. First, issues related to possible higher taxes on energy, or banking companies. Here, the speakers were not entirely in agreement on whether and how they should possibly be additionally taxed.

In terms of specific investment opportunities, ČEZ was mentioned in particular, as well as Komerční banka. Speculations regarding the possible introduction of new taxes caused their price to drop by tens of percent. For investors, this uncertainty is perhaps worse than if their introduction were clearly and transparently communicated. In the case of ČEZ, possible nationalization cannot be ruled out, albeit for financial compensation.

Despite the above-mentioned risks and the possible approaching recession, this can be an interesting opportunity for domestic investors to regularly collect dividends and protect themselves against inflation in the long term.

You can play the complete recording of the conference <a href="https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1932/8043/files/200721_ODSTOUPENI_BEZ_UDANI_DUVODU__EN.pdf?v=1595428404" data-gt-href-en="https://en.notsofunnyany.com/">here</a>.