Jiří Filip Press Release: American markets are again likely to experience stormy moments, mainly due to the publication of two crucial data on their economy. This is a disclosure US inflation (Tuesday 13/12 at 14:15) and subsequently also about the publication of the decision on the setting US interest rates (Wednesday 14/12 at 19:45), or more precisely, what their increase will be.
These negotiations are very often accompanied by high volatility not only on American but also on world markets. However postings this week may be more important than previous ones. Interest rates have already been raised 4 times in a row by 0,75%, but this week the markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by only 0,5%, which has also been hinted at recently by representatives of the FED, including Jerome Powell. This would mean the long-awaited "Fed pivot", i.e. a turning point, when, although rate increases will still take place, they will no longer be so aggressive. On the other hand, in the event of a further increase in rates by 75 basis points, we can expect a relatively negative reaction on the markets.
The already mentioned inflation data can help, which will be published the day before and are one of the basic metrics when deciding on interest rates. Inflation in the US consistently has been falling since June – during that time it fell from 9,1% to 7,7% and recorded a large decrease especially in the last month (by 0,5%). This however, the decrease was primarily caused by one item - the price of energy. It is still not clear whether overall inflation is really falling. So if unfavorable numbers come out on Tuesday, it can have a big impact on interest rates the following day.
For those interested in staying in the loop and possibly taking advantage of the upcoming volatility, XTB will be broadcasting live commentary for both events to accompany Jiří Tyleček, Štěpán Hájek and Martin Jakubec.
Tuesday 13 December at 12:14. US CPI live commentary:
Wednesday 14/12 at 19:45. Live FOMC Commentary (Interest Rates):
