Michal Ždanský If anyone still doubts the onset of the Post-PC era, the numbers released this week by analytics firms Strategy Analytics a IDC should convince even the biggest doubters. The post PC era was first defined by Steve Jobs in 2007 when he described iPod-type devices as devices that do not serve general purposes but focus on specific tasks such as playing music. Tim Cook continued this rhetoric a few years later, saying that Post PC devices are already replacing classic computers and this phenomenon will continue.
This claim was given by the company Strategy Analytics for the truth According to their estimates, in 2013 sales of tablets will surpass sales of mobile PCs (mainly notebooks) for the first time, with a share of 55%. While 231 million tablets are expected to be sold, only 186 million laptops and other mobile computers. It should be noted that last year the ratio was also close, with roughly 45 percent in favor of tablets. Next year, the gap is set to deepen, and tablets should gain a share of over 60 percent among mobile computing devices.
This is definitely great news for Apple and Google, who share the entire market roughly half in terms of operating systems. However, Apple has the upper hand here because it is the exclusive distributor of iOS tablets (iPad), while the profit from the sale of Android tablets is shared among several manufacturers. In addition, many successful Android tablets are sold with a minimal margin (Kindle Fire, Nexus 7), so the majority of profits from this segment will go to Apple.
On the contrary, it is bad news for Microsoft, which is struggling in the tablet market. Its Surface tablets haven't seen much success yet, and neither have other manufacturers with Windows 8/Windows RT tablets not doing very well. To make matters worse, tablets are gradually outgrowing not only laptops, but personal computers in general. According to IDC, PC sales fell 10,1 percent, more than the firm initially expected (1,3% at the start of the year, 7,9% in May). After all, the last time the PC market saw growth was in the first quarter of 2012, and the last time sales grew by double-digit percentage points was 2010, when, coincidentally, Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPad.
IDC also says the decline will continue and estimates sales of 305,1 million PCs (desktops + laptops) in 2014, down 2,9% from this year's forecast of 314,2 million PCs. In both cases, however, it is still only conjecture. In fact, the forecast for next year seems almost too positive, moreover according to IDC the decline should stop in the coming years and sales should rise again in 2017.
IDC believes in the successful rise of hybrid 2-in-1 computers, but ignores the reason for the success of the iPad and tablets in general. Ordinary people who do not use a computer for work can usually get by with an Internet browser, a simple text editor, access to social networks, viewing photos, playing videos and sending e-mails, which the iPad will provide them perfectly without having to struggle with a desktop operating system. In this regard, the iPad is truly the first computer for the masses due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. After all, it was none other than Steve Jobs who predicted the tablet trend in 2010:
“When we were an agricultural nation, all the cars were trucks because you needed them on the farm. But as means of transportation began to be used in urban centers, cars became more popular. Innovations such as automatic transmission, power steering and other things that you didn't care about in trucks became crucial in cars. PCs will be like trucks. They'll still be here, they'll still have a lot of value, but only one in X people will use them.”
But sales of tablets are also much higher because they change more often than computers. I think a lot of people still can't live without a computer, but it's hard to predict the future...
Just look at the development and the future is easy to predict :) The percentage of desktops and laptops in the total number of computers will stop at around 10-20% and then it will not decrease.
And there is usually only one desktop in the family, sometimes even a laptop, while tablets are spreading more like mobile phones, so everyone in the family will have one.
PC sales just won't disappear, and neither will laptops. You have to do the work on something, and let's be realistic... you can't really do professional work on tablets. Tablets are a boom and when a certain coefficient is met… they start to decline. or stagnate.
"Professional work can't really be done on tablets." - Beautiful space for iPad Pro! :D
I don't know where you get that certainty, but I'd rather draw "professionally" on an iPad than on a Mac, so I don't know where you get such opinions. And no one is saying that the PC will disappear someday, it's not even possible in principle. Only the drive was the primary computer for PC people, in the future it will be the iPad (or some copy of it).
But of course video professionals, programmers, etc. will always have laptops or desktops. And no one denied that. Only for most people, a tablet will be enough instead of a desktop PC or laptop - that's what this whole post-PC revolution is about.
What certain coefficient will it fulfill for us?!
The one that practically everyone will have. PCs and laptops have been here for xy years. practically everyone has them. Regardless of the fact that, as someone already mentioned here, parts are bought to change the PC, which are not included. As a result, this means that only the stretchers change. Tablets are a boom that wasn't here a few years ago, nobody had them, it was starting all over again. Look at the curve when desktop computers or laptops were taking off. You will see the same curve. When almost everyone has the tablet, the same will happen with it as with the PC. It is simply classic evolution, not a revolution as someone wrote here. I don't want to deny the curves etc. I just think it's a classic process of evolution and it doesn't prove anything, I won't give up my desktop PC. And honestly, I can't imagine doing some things on a tablet. And the thought of writing my bachelor's thesis on a tablet, for example, gives me chills. On the other hand, if a tablet, then only an ipad. If something good for work, then only Mac. If listening to quality music, then only iPod. And if a phone, then only an iPhone :).
Q: What certain coefficient will this fulfill us?!
A: The one that practically everyone will have.
Hmm, a sophisticated answer from a university student (graduate).
In my opinion, the sales of PCs are only as complete sets. A significant percentage builds the PC itself from individual components (which I think is not included).
I think the file is about the development of the curve rather than a specific number. And tablets are gradually being replaced by PCs for normal people. And I'm not surprised :)
The problem is that most people build their PCs themselves and that is not included in the estimates. I assembled my PC twice and approx. I have never bought 2 computers for well-known and complete PCs. In my opinion, the PC platform is still the most important and everyone should have a PC because laptops are consumer goods (personally, I have not had a Mac yet, but apart from France, Italy and the UK, Macs are not very widespread in Europe, so I cannot judge that). I think that everyone should have a desktop PC, both at work and at home, whose performance cannot be measured, and when traveling, a small yet large iPad that will last for several years, up-to-date and usable.
In my opinion, the percentage of people who build a PC at home, given the total volume of PCs sold, will be at the limit of the statistical error of the mentioned survey.
I myself use an iPad at work and at home, but I still can't live without a laptop. I wouldn't use a desktop PC because I need to be mobile with the contents of the laptop.
"Most people build their own PC", "PC platform is the most important", "everyone should have a PC"
Cute, you can't be further from the truth on these points :) But dude, you like PC, but you don't want to tell me that you really believe what you write.
As for the "importance" of the platform, I don't see how you want to compare importance in principle. If there was no need, then it does not exist. As simple as that.